How the Afghanistan Withdrawal May Have Contributed to US Hesitation in Entering Israel Iran War

The argument that a delay in the US entering a potential Iran war is due to a loss of confidence post-withdrawal from Afghanistan is a compelling one. There are strong arguments supporting this link.

The final days of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, including the chaotic evacuation from Kabul airport were widely criticized. This chaotic imagery, including scenes of desperation and the Abbey Gate attack, led many to question the planning and execution capabilities of the US. The swift Taliban takeover and the perceived abandonment of Afghan allies were seen as a blow to American prestige and credibility on the world stage. Adversaries like Russia, China and Iran viewed this as a sign of US weakness and an emboldening factor for their own actions.

There was also an impact of US withdrawal from Afghanistan on allies. Some allies expressed concerns about the manner of the withdrawal, questioning the reliability of US commitments. This could complicate future coalition operations and affect the willingness of partners to cooperate.

All of this can change if US navigates Iran war successfully.

US entering Israel-Iran conflict, if it were to occur, would likely differ significantly from the Afghanistan experience in terms of its potential duration and nature. There are key differences from Afghanistan that could limit its duration in Iran.

In Afghanistan, the US fought an insurgency (the Taliban) that was deeply embedded in the population, had strong ideological roots, and could melt away and reappear. It was a non-state actor with a diffuse structure. Nation-building was a core, long-term objective. But Iran is a nation with a conventional military. A conflict with Iran would involve conventional military engagements, air superiority, naval operations and targeted strikes. While Iran has proxies, the primary adversary is a state with defined borders and infrastructure.

In Iran, American focus would more likely be on specific objectives like dismantling its nuclear program, deterring regional aggression, or degrading its military capabilities. This limited objective would inherently reduce the scope for a long-term occupation.

Afghanistan's rugged, landlocked mountains aided insurgency, prolonging conventional ops. Iran's diverse terrain - deserts, coasts, and cities - offers varied tactical options allowing for more decisive conventional engagements, unlike Afghanistan.

Post-9/11 mission in Afghanistan evolved from dismantling Al-Qaeda/Taliban to nation-building/counter-insurgency, leading to a two-decade presence. Iran objectives would be narrower: preventing nukes, deterring attacks, ensuring navigation, or responding to provocations.

Bottom line:

A direct, decades-long occupation like Afghanistan is unlikely in an Iran conflict due to fundamental structural and strategic differences. A successful US campaign in the Israel-Iran war could significantly rebuild confidence in American global leadership. Such an outcome could help dispel negative perceptions from the Afghanistan withdrawal and reassure allies of the USA's reliability. Ultimately, the potential benefits of a decisive intervention could outweigh the risks.

- Rahul