Travelogue: Jubba Sahni Park, Muzaffarpur, Bihar

 

Travelogue: Grand Mall, Muzaffarpur, Bihar

 

Books: Fooled by Randomness : The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets; by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

As the title indicates, this book is about the significance of randomness in our life. Published in 2001, this book was a precursor to his more famous work, "The Black Swan," further developing many of the ideas introduced here. 

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a former options trader, argues that our brains are not wired to comprehend the true nature of probability and the impact of rare, high-impact events. We tend to attribute success to skill and hard work, while conveniently overlooking the immense influence of luck and unforeseen random occurrences. Conversely, failures are often attributed to external factors rather than a misunderstanding of risk.

The book has a few areas of improvements in my opinion: I feel there is a slight confusion in the book about its target audience, since the book addresses a diverse set of contexts: a mix of philosophy, psychology, stock market trading, and history. The length of the book also ‘feels’; and I think 1/3 to 1/2 of the book can be easily trimmed to make it more effective for readers. Also, during the first half of the book, the writer’s tongue in cheek style of writing creates a distraction for the readers; especially since the subject is a grave one. This improves as we get towards the latter part of the book near its end, which is most enlightening. 

Here are some of the important points from the book:

- Our brains aren't wired to grasp true probability or the immense impact of rare, high-consequence events.

- Much perceived "skill" is actually luck disguised as deterministic outcomes. 

- It is not wise to rely on inductive reasoning – drawing general conclusions from specific observations – especially in complex and unpredictable systems. Empirical data can be misleading because it only represents what has happened, not what could happen or will happen.

- We only see the single realized path of events, overlooking countless "alternate histories" that could've occurred.

- Hindsight Bias: Believing we "knew it all along."

- Confirmation Bias: Seeking only information that confirms our beliefs.

- Narrative Fallacy: Creating false cause-and-effect stories for random events.

- Overconfidence: Overestimating our abilities and predictions.

- Halo Effect: Our overall impression of a person (e.g., successful) influences our perception of their specific traits, making us attribute their success to admirable qualities, even if those qualities were not truly the cause.

- Survivorship bias: We focus only on successes, ignoring the numerous failures.

- The "Turkey Problem": Past patterns don't guarantee future consistency, especially with extreme events.

- Silent evidence: The unseen data of failures that distort our understanding of success.

- Embrace Stoicism to accept what's beyond our control and maintain rationality amidst uncertainty.

- Rahul 

Travelogue: Pune Airport

 

Travelogue: Bangalore Airport

 

Books: The Psychology of Money: Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness: By Morgan Housel

 

I had been reading about this book and its author Morgan Housel for quite some time. Finally, I got chance to finish this book. I highly recommend it to all.

During my MBA, I had come across a subject called “behavioral finance” for the first time. It was enlightening to study and it all made sense. This book is the second such education I underwent.

The most important part I want to highlight about this book is that the author appears very honest in it. Honesty is often an underrated trait in the world of writing. Along with age, I have been observing and appreciating it more and more. Near the end of the book, the author has also included a chapter where he describes his own personal investment style. He mentions that he mainly invests in low-cost index funds, no risky investments, does not take debt, lives frugal lifestyle, saves lot of his income for the rainy days, and it clearly seems that he practices what he advocates. It was very touching.

There are about 20 chapters in this book and all contain timeless wisdom related to life in general and wealth in particular. Since I read a lot, I had come across a few of those lessons earlier form other sources, but most of the book came as a great read and a great realization.

It is really nice to come across such an honest book and this author who seems so genuine. Hats off to Morgan and as I mentioned in the beginning, I highly recommend this book to one and all.

- Rahul Tiwary

Travelogue: Cloudy Sky from an Air India Express Flight

 

Travelogue: Patna Airport (New Terminal after Modernisation Project)

 

Hindu Temple: Baba Dudh Nath Dham, Chhapra Megh, Muzaffarpur, Bihar

 

Travelogue: Some Pictures from Muzaffarpur, Bihar

 

(Clockwise from top left) 

Icon Plaza Mall, Bhagwanpur

Sikandarpur Lakefront  

Royal Mansion Banquet Hall, Goshala Road

Motijheel Flyover

A mango orchard in Muzaffarpur 

Sahu Pokhar Ram Janaki Mandir 

Busts of freedom fighters Prafulla Chandra Chaki (1888-1908) and Khudi Ram Bose (1889-1908) at Muzaffarpur 

How the Afghanistan Withdrawal May Have Contributed to US Hesitation in Entering Israel Iran War

The argument that a delay in the US entering a potential Iran war is due to a loss of confidence post-withdrawal from Afghanistan is a compelling one. There are strong arguments supporting this link.

The final days of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, including the chaotic evacuation from Kabul airport were widely criticized. This chaotic imagery, including scenes of desperation and the Abbey Gate attack, led many to question the planning and execution capabilities of the US. The swift Taliban takeover and the perceived abandonment of Afghan allies were seen as a blow to American prestige and credibility on the world stage. Adversaries like Russia, China and Iran viewed this as a sign of US weakness and an emboldening factor for their own actions.

There was also an impact of US withdrawal from Afghanistan on allies. Some allies expressed concerns about the manner of the withdrawal, questioning the reliability of US commitments. This could complicate future coalition operations and affect the willingness of partners to cooperate.

All of this can change if US navigates Iran war successfully.

US entering Israel-Iran conflict, if it were to occur, would likely differ significantly from the Afghanistan experience in terms of its potential duration and nature. There are key differences from Afghanistan that could limit its duration in Iran.

In Afghanistan, the US fought an insurgency (the Taliban) that was deeply embedded in the population, had strong ideological roots, and could melt away and reappear. It was a non-state actor with a diffuse structure. Nation-building was a core, long-term objective. But Iran is a nation with a conventional military. A conflict with Iran would involve conventional military engagements, air superiority, naval operations and targeted strikes. While Iran has proxies, the primary adversary is a state with defined borders and infrastructure.

In Iran, American focus would more likely be on specific objectives like dismantling its nuclear program, deterring regional aggression, or degrading its military capabilities. This limited objective would inherently reduce the scope for a long-term occupation.

Afghanistan's rugged, landlocked mountains aided insurgency, prolonging conventional ops. Iran's diverse terrain - deserts, coasts, and cities - offers varied tactical options allowing for more decisive conventional engagements, unlike Afghanistan.

Post-9/11 mission in Afghanistan evolved from dismantling Al-Qaeda/Taliban to nation-building/counter-insurgency, leading to a two-decade presence. Iran objectives would be narrower: preventing nukes, deterring attacks, ensuring navigation, or responding to provocations.

Bottom line:

A direct, decades-long occupation like Afghanistan is unlikely in an Iran conflict due to fundamental structural and strategic differences. A successful US campaign in the Israel-Iran war could significantly rebuild confidence in American global leadership. Such an outcome could help dispel negative perceptions from the Afghanistan withdrawal and reassure allies of the USA's reliability. Ultimately, the potential benefits of a decisive intervention could outweigh the risks.

- Rahul 

Arguments for Immediate US Intervention in the Israel-Iran Conflict

 

After 6-7 days of Israel-Iran war, recent reports suggest that Iran has achieved significant successes in its conflict with Israel, inflicting considerable damage. There is a perception that the US President is delaying intervention, perhaps to legitimize future actions, while relying on social media statements. 

The establishment of Israel as a separate nation was intended to prevent catastrophic events for the Jewish people. However, in the current conflict, Israel appears to be engaging Iran without direct support from other Western nations. Questions are being raised about the apparent passivity of the United States, United Kingdom, and France, who seem to be observing the war from a distance. 

A strategic concern highlighted is that Israel is constrained from targeting Iranian civilians, as such actions could inadvertently unify the Iranian populace with their government, contrary to the US objective of achieving regime change through popular support. Conversely, Iran is reportedly striking Israeli civilians, possibly due to the perceived ease and cost-effectiveness of such attacks, alongside existing animosity towards Israelis. This situation evokes sympathy for Israeli civilians caught in the conflict. 

Only coordinated intervention with Western backing could bring a swift end to the conflict and save Israeli lives. However, if the American objective is primarily regime change in Iran, a rapid resolution might not align with that goal. The lack of apparent concern for Israeli civilians in this context is deemed unfair. 

The US is using Israel as a proxy, similar to its perceived utilization of Ukraine against Russia, to achieve broader geopolitical objectives. This strategy places Israelis at a similar risk to that faced by Ukrainians. 

The current US President's actions are not significantly different from previous administrations, and he has been preoccupied with social media posturing while Israel faces intense conflict. 

As a bottom-line, for the sake of Israeli people, the United States must join Israel in the war against Iran without further delay. 

- Rahul

 

Reflections on “Gulaal” (2009): A Cinematic Masterpiece

 

I recently watched Gulaal (2009) on the ‘MH One’ TV channel, and I was genuinely stunned by its intricate plot and the thoughtful execution. The film stands out as a rare gem, far removed from the typical lot produced in India. Upon discovering that it was written and directed by Anurag Kashyap, everything made sense—he is a master of his craft, deserving of the highest honours and recognition.

The film lingered in my mind long after it ended. One striking observation was that nearly every character who died seemed to be actively courting their own demise. It’s an eerie pattern worth noting.

The first to fall was Rananjay Singh ‘Ransa’, portrayed brilliantly by Abhimanyu Singh. His performance was so compelling that I looked him up and learned he hails from Sonpur, Bihar. His natural and powerful acting left a lasting impression. Ransa, captured by his envious stepbrother, showed no fear. Instead of pleading for his life, he hurled insults at his armed captor, provoking him until he was shot. It felt as though Ransa invited his own death.

Later, Dukey Banna (played with intensity by Kay Kay Menon) orchestrates the killing of Jadwal, though the film offers no background, making it unclear whether Jadwal’s death was similarly self-inflicted.

Dukey’s elder brother, Prithvi Banna, mentally unstable after their father’s death, spirals out of control. Dukey attempts to shoot him but accidentally kills a dancer instead. Prithvi’s erratic behaviour made his fate seem inevitable.

Toward the end, Dilip, a young student, shoots Dukey Banna. Rather than trying to escape or seek help, Dukey spends his final moments revealing how Dilip’s girlfriend manipulated him to gain political power. It’s as if Dukey chose to spend his last breath enlightening a confused youth rather than saving himself.

Bhati, Dukey’s associate, is later killed by a rival gang. His decision to venture alone into a dark, isolated area is baffling. He could have eliminated Dilip earlier when he was vulnerable. Even Bhati's reaction to being shot—standing still, making no attempt to flee—felt like a silent acceptance of death.

After realizing he was used by Kiran, Dilip tries but fails to shoot her. It’s a tragic moment, reflecting how love can paralyze even in the face of betrayal. Her brother then shoots Dilip, and instead of seeking help, he runs to his empty rented room. That final run felt deeply symbolic—more a journey of heartbreak than a response to injury. It was his homecoming, his pilgrimage, his moment of maturity—tragically timed just before death.

The film’s ending, where the corrupt triumph and the idealists perish, is both ironic and fitting. Gulaal portrays a world where predators roam freely, and some characters, knowingly or not, embrace their fate.

Perhaps when life is lived on one’s own terms, death becomes less a fearsome end and more a threshold to cross.

- Rahul Tiwary